Odds are, Ford CEO Jim Farley and Common Motors CEO Mary Barra have both already voted within the election or will on Tuesday. Fortunately, although, we’ve completely no concept who which candidate they really assist. Your guess is about pretty much as good as mine. Tesla CEO Elon Musk, alternatively, has made it abundantly clear that he’s all-in for Trump. And he doesn’t simply need Trump to win — he’s spending thousands and thousands and actively campaigning on his behalf. If Trump wins, Musk and his corporations will completely profit, however what occurs if the convicted felon loses?
It definitely isn’t unlawful or unprecedented for a billionaire CEO to make use of their cash and affect in an try to sway the election in favor of their most well-liked candidate, and but, Musk should discover himself in authorized bother over his political motion committee’s potential violation of human trafficking legal guidelines, the potential mendacity on his immigration paperwork and his buddy-buddy relationship with enemy dictator Vladimir Putin. That’s not even the entire listing, only a handful of essentially the most speedy points that deserve investigating.
Nonetheless, we don’t understand how aggressively the Harris administration would go after Musk, particularly within the months instantly following her inauguration. In spite of everything, there’s an opportunity that post-election and post-inauguration right-wing violence will trigger greater than its fair proportion of distractions. They’re already burning poll packing containers, so there’s no purpose to consider they’ll take a Trump loss peacefully. No matter what any investigation concludes, although, the wheels of justice flip slowly, and he in all probability received’t face any precise penalties for some time, if he ever does.
You can also’t overlook about that entire two-tiered justice system we’ve that appears particularly geared towards holding the wealthy out of jail. If his cozy little nighttime chats with Putin weren’t sufficient to forestall the Pentagon from utilizing SpaceX to launch a community of spy satellites, it’s laborious to have a lot religion that the Harris administration received’t proceed her predecessor’s coverage of merely letting him get away with every little thing.
Whether or not it’s for present or one thing he truly believes, Musk’s conduct on Twitter recently definitely suggests he isn’t assured his standing because the richest particular person on this planet will preserve him secure. Along with all his different rubbish tweets, Musk can also be spreading the concept that Democrats plan to destroy him, and in his interview with TV dinner belief fund child Tucker Carlson, stated he’s fucked if Trump loses. Why he’s threatening me with an excellent time, I don’t know, but it surely in all probability has one thing to do with all of the ketamine.
If Musk does go down, although, that will possible be unhealthy information for each firm he runs however particularly Tesla because it’s publicly traded. Its worth has been fully divorced from its merchandise and income for years now, and with Musk now not on the helm, it’s laborious to think about traders wouldn’t flee. Tesla is Elon, and Elon is Tesla, in any case.
What’s way more attention-grabbing to contemplate is what is going to occur to Tesla if we assume the established order is usually right here to remain. In a state of affairs the place Trump loses, and Musk tries to return to being his pre-Twitter-takeover self, it’s nonetheless straightforward to see a number of potential prospects deciding they don’t wish to give their cash to somebody so unapologetically right-wing. I imply, he’s already telling folks he plans to crash the financial system when he guts the federal authorities like a non-public fairness CEO who simply acquired a media firm from Univision. Common folks don’t have a tendency to love guys like that.
For just about another electrical automaker, a Harris win could be excellent news. She’s going to possible proceed to supply tax credit for EV purchases and needs to develop the EV business within the U.S. She’ll spend money on clear vitality and can presumably proceed the carbon credit score program that advantages electrical automakers, together with Tesla. The bar isn’t excessive, however you’ll be able to count on Harris to be essentially the most pro-EV president in historical past. On paper, Tesla’s CEO must be all about that, particularly with its U.S. factories giving it a bonus over automakers that construct their EVs abroad.
The draw back for Tesla is that Harris’s insurance policies will assist the EV business as an entire, not Tesla particularly. If different automakers’ EV gross sales enhance, that’s solely going to harm Tesla’s market share and can possible impression its gross sales, as properly. What Tesla does have is its Supercharger community, which might nonetheless be a priceless asset that generates income even when each Tesla manufacturing facility magically disappeared in a single day.
By the top of the second Harris administration, different networks might have caught up, however at the very least within the close to future, you’ll be able to’t overlook how essential the Supercharger community is as the corporate faces an uphill battle in opposition to competitors that solely will get harder each time a brand new EV goes on sale. The truth that Tesla’s lineup is both historical or the Cybertruck definitely doesn’t assist issues, both.
In fact, Musk defenders will inform you automotive gross sales don’t matter as a result of Tesla is now an AI/robotics firm, but it surely’s additionally straightforward to see traders getting spooked and making an attempt to place their cash someplace safer than Tesla as they regulate their technique based mostly on the path they consider Harris will take the nation. It’s additionally no secret that Tesla is a meme inventory and has been for a very long time. There could also be a couple of credulous rubes who stick round and actually consider Tesla is about to “remedy autonomy,” however come late January, what number of of these will nonetheless be round?
If traders get spooked, issues may in a short time go from unhealthy to worse for Musk and Tesla. SpaceX is efficacious when it comes to authorities contracts, but it surely isn’t a publicly traded firm he can use to fund his way of life. He wants Tesla to stay overvalued to maintain this entire factor going, and some massive traders exiting may very well be the falling domino that ultimately brings all of it down. If the inventory value relies on vibes anyway, unhealthy vibes may simply snowball right into a state of affairs the place everybody’s determined to leap ship earlier than the worth falls even additional.
It’s additionally not like the rich don’t have legitimate causes to be fearful about an incoming Harris administration. She plans to lift taxes on the wealthy, regulate companies and proceed Biden’s coverage of going after rich tax cheats. (And miss me with that, “Woe is me, I can barely get by on $400,000 in San Francisco,” bullshit. Learn to funds like the remainder of us, Richy Wealthy.) The nation and the folks might be higher off below the Harris administration, however even earlier than she has the possibility to do any of that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see millionaires and billionaires act just like the sky is falling as a result of they won’t be capable to afford to outfit a brand new non-public jet or bust unions and abuse staff with out penalties.
Consequently, it’s straightforward to think about a situation the place traders wish to distance themselves from Musk and put their cash into safer investments which are much less prone to be topic to elevated regulation. And but, when you get to that time, it actually turns into laborious to guess what occurs subsequent. Possibly it’s potential that the board kicks Elon to the curb, goes again to being an everyday electrical automaker and offers up on pretending humanoid robots will truly be helpful. Given the make-up of the present board, although, that appears about as possible as Musk getting precise jail time.
So what do you assume? Will the inventory crash? Will it’s extra of a sluggish burn? Will something occur to Musk? Does one other automaker swoop in and purchase Tesla? Will the corporate nonetheless exist in 4 years? Will Musk remedy autonomy and switch his robotaxis right into a multi-trillion-dollar goldmine? Just about any reply is simply as legitimate as another as a result of there’s no strategy to predict the long run. At this level, whether or not Harris or Trump wins might as properly be a coin-flip, so should you haven’t voted already, make double rattling positive you do this. The very last thing this nation wants is Elon ready of energy in a second Trump administration.
